The expanded 48-team World Cup has changed the dynamics of the group stage. Gone are the days when finishing outside the top two meant automatic elimination. In the new format, the top two teams from each of the 12 groups are joined by the eight best third-placed teams, meaning two-thirds of the field will advance to the knockout stages.
As we enter the final match day of the group stage, the race for those eight third place spots is starting to take shape. Four points should be enough for most teams. Three points may still be enough, but only with a favorable goal difference and goal-scoring record.
Scotland, Croatia and Sweden are well positioned
If there is a group of teams sitting comfortably ahead of the finals, Scotland, Croatia and Sweden are among them. Scotland are third in Group C with three points and a neutral goal difference. They face Brazil knowing that a draw will give them four points and leave them in an excellent position to qualify even if they finish third. A win could still send them into the automatic qualification spot.
Croatia is in a similarly encouraging position. They are third in Group L with three points and are in direct contention with Ghana for qualification. A win would almost certainly see them through, while a draw would give them four points – a historically sufficient total for third-placed teams in major competitions.
Sweden are another side whose fate is in their own hands. They will face Japan in the final, who are third in Group F with three points. A draw would probably be enough to keep them among the third-placed powerhouses, while a win could propel them into the top two.
Australia, Paraguay and a Group D tie in the knockout stages
Some groups are neatly formed like Group D. Australia and Paraguay both have three points and meet in the final. The winner will almost certainly advance and could take second place depending on the outcome of the United States-Turkey match.
A draw could also be enough for Australia, who will move to four points. Paraguay will also stay alive on four points, although their poor goal difference means they will spend the evening watching the scoreboard elsewhere.
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Like many teams in the third-place race, both control their own destiny.
Belgium and Cape Verde remain in control
Belgium’s campaign has yet to be truly on fire, but the Red Devils are far from out of trouble. They are third in Group G with two points after two draws from two matches. A win over New Zealand would give them five points and guarantee a place among the third-best teams, if not the top two.
Cape Verde occupy the same position in Group H. Their two draws have earned them two points going into the decider against Saudi Arabia. A win would take them to five points and almost certainly into the knockout stages. A draw would leave them on three points and vulnerable to results elsewhere.
Czechia, Bosnia and Ecuador need a big result
Teams sitting on a point have reached a point where the calculation is less important than the win.
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Czechia should get a result against group leaders Mexico. Four points would give them a realistic chance of progressing, while anything less would end their hopes.
Bosnia and Herzegovina take on Qatar in one of the tournament’s most impactful lower-table encounters. Both teams have a point and both know that a win will put them in a real fight for third place.
Ecuador faces the most difficult task of all. They are third in Group E with a point but need to take something from their final match against Germany, who have won their first two matches. Four points will keep Ecuador alive. Nothing else is likely to be sufficient.
DR Congo and Saudi Arabia fall into the same category. Both can still reach four points, but neither has room for error.
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Senegal, Turkey need a miracle
The picture is grim for the teams still stuck on zero points.
Senegal, Iraq, Jordan, Uzbekistan, Tunisia, Haiti, Turkey and Panama can finish with a maximum of three points. This does not eliminate them mathematically, but it leaves them dependent on the most unlikely combination of outcomes elsewhere.