Mikel Merino, who scored the goal that took Spain to the World Cup semi-finals, was on the pitch for just one minute and 57 seconds. With Belgium’s backup goalkeeper Senne Lamens, Thibaut Courtois out injured, Pau Quercy’s shot fell into his path in the 88th minute. A substitute punished a second substitution error, in a game Belgium also started without their captain injured. It was Merino’s second goal as a substitute at this World Cup, his first came six days earlier, in the 91st minute, six minutes from time and ended Cristiano Ronaldo’s World Cup campaign.
Matches in this competition are still decided by ninety minutes of football rather than those standing in the final twenty. Sometimes it is an option; Sometimes just a starter who has run less than the guy marking him.
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Late play
The pattern is showing up in many teams and now many matches involving the same player are coincidences.
Norway’s victory over Brazil, the biggest result in their football history, ran on the same clock. Andreas Schjelderup came on at halftime and set up both of Erling Haaland’s late goals, which came in the final eleven minutes, with Brazil’s defense underspending on headers. None of this is really about one player. Substitutes have scored 52 of 250 goals in the competition, according to Opta, 18.6 percent of the total, ahead of 2014’s all-time high of 18.7 percent and 2022 and 1990 forward, both 17.4 percent.
Norway’s Andreas Schjelderup plays in a cross from teammate Erling Haaland to score his first goal in the World Cup round of 16 match against Brazil. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)
There is another number that says the same thing more precisely. 11.4 percent of all goals scored at this World Cup came in injury time, the highest share in the tournament’s history. More than half of those, 53 percent, were scored by substitute players.
Not that fresh legs are scoring high. They stand out especially when there is nothing left on the rest of the pitch.
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Beyond the 90s
Paraguay showed a system of work without being the best pressing side of the competition, just the most disciplined. Germany had 78 percent of the ball in the first half and, by most accounts, had done enough to win before going to penalties. But Paraguay held on, with VAR erasing Germany’s goal in extra time and winning the shootout 4-3. They got discipline, not possession. It wasn’t enough against France, who lost 1-0 in the last 16.
The Egypt vs Argentina pattern doesn’t need a bench at all, just a clock. Egypt lead 2-0 with eleven minutes remaining. Cristian Romero headed one back. Messi, who missed the penalty earlier in this match, equalized by hitting a half volley. Enzo Fernandes scored the winner in the 92nd minute. No one came forward to do so. What changed was the time, not the personnel: a two-goal lead turned into a countdown after eleven minutes.
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It doesn’t always open. Switzerland and Colombia played 120 minutes in Vancouver with barely a chance created between them, the two exhausted sides canceling each other out so completely that exhaustion itself could not break the deadlock. The tie went to penalties and Gregor Kobel’s save decided it.
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Pressing sides live and die by their bench, because pressing cannot last ninety minutes. The rest live and die by the clock, because fitness and nerves are the same currency, spent differently. Either way, nothing is decided until there is nothing left to hide behind.
France and Spain have already booked their semi-final places, both favoring a pattern in opposite directions: France prepared to inflict punishment before closing in, Spain going goalless before breaking Belgium late on. Argentina face Switzerland and England face Norway for the final two spots and Norway’s own path, with Haaland fading behind a high-press, suggests another late goal is coming before the semi-finals are decided.
Each still has a version of the same pattern: France closes the door early, Spain trusts its bench late, whoever survives Argentina-Switzerland finds another gear through Messi or the discipline that took Switzerland so far. And Norway, if they get past England, will repeat what worked against Brazil: an option to set up a striker who waited all match for a clean opener.
None of them will win by being good for eighty minutes. Whoever lifts the trophy will do what Merino did against both Portugal and Belgium: get ready in just a few minutes, which mattered, on a pitch where everyone had already spent everything they had.