Read 3 minutes29 Jun 2026 06:47 PM IST
Predicting the FIFA World Cup winner is an activity in which many people and animals are involved. But while most rely on whimsical and somewhat controversial analysis, one who has taken an empirical approach to the matter predicts another France-Argentina title fight, with Le Bleus on top.
If data analysts predict Opta True to form, football fans around the world could relive one of the greatest World Cup finals in history, with Lionel Messi’s Argentina winning the penalty shootout despite Kylian Mbappe’s hat-trick.
Accordingly OptaFrance started the 2026 tournament as second-favourites (13 per cent), but an excellent performance in the group has put them ahead of Argentina (16.3 per cent) and Spain (13.5 per cent) with an 18.7 per cent chance of adding to their two titles.
After the group stage Opta The supercomputer generated the remaining 25,000 knockout-stage predictions for the 2026 World Cup, revealing each team’s chances of reaching the final and lifting the trophy.
After winning the World Cup on home soil since 1998, France won all three of their group matches. Opta will hope to beat Sweden in the round of 32 before potential meetings with Germany and Spain.
The draw seems to have opened up for Argentina. A round of 32 with newcomers Cape Verde is a favorable result and could face either Australia or Egypt in the last 16, followed by a quarter-final against one of Switzerland, Colombia, Ghana or Algeria. Argentina probably won’t face a true heavyweight until the semi-finals, at which point Brazil or England will be their likely opponents, Opta predicted.
Spain was the favorite in the tournament, but fell somewhat Optacalculation. They can expect a tough round of 16 draw with neighbors Portugal, but should advance to the quarter-finals against one of the United States, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belgium or Senegal.
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England (9.7 percent) and Brazil (6.5 percent) are fourth and fifth Optawhile the Netherlands’ odds improved from 3.6 to 5.1 percent after the group stage. Of the three host nations, the USA is expected to go the deepest in the draw. They have a 42.5 percent chance of reaching the quarterfinals, while Mexico and Canada have 28.3 and 25.2 percent, respectively.