Messi misses like Mbappe: What’s behind giants’ penalty misses at FIFA WC

And to think, Argentina’s Emiliano Martínez hasn’t even faced one yet.

The 2026 World Cup has not been a very fruitful tournament for the penalty takers. The 12-yard gap has become treacherous.

Of the 61 penalties taken, 21 – more than a third – were not converted either through saves or misses. As cited by Geyer Jordet, author of ‘Penalty’ writing in the New York Times, the success rate before the tournament is less than 66 percent, well below the overall average of 81 percent.

In 90 minutes and extra time, there have been 21 penalties with six missed.

Penalty shootouts at the World Cup have averaged 69 percent conversion since the 1982 edition, but 25 of the 40 converted have decreased by 7 percent. This is much higher than the overall success rate of 78 percent in the 2010 edition in South Africa.

“I don’t think it’s a coincidence. Taking penalties has become much more predictable than it was years ago,” noted German goalkeeper Oliver Kahn.

Kylian Mbappé misses penalty during World Cup 2026 (AP Photo)

With his hat and stern appearance, Kahn was a major obstacle in his time. But the penalty was deemed a close goal and the ‘keepers realized they were at a huge disadvantage.

no more

“That’s because every penalty taker today has a detailed profile. Goalkeepers also know the exact corner, run, body position and how the player reacts under pressure,” says Kahn, ZEE5’s expert.

Earlier, goalkeepers had to rely on their talent and anticipation. They looked at the eyes, head tilt, subtle movements of the hips and planted feet to determine the direction of the kick. But this was all guesswork.

Data on fines began to be collected in the 1990s, and finer samples were better constructed than before.

Bounau has excelled in penalty situations with a combination of reflexes and reactions – losing just twice in the nine he has faced. Three misses featured theatrics, while four saves pointed to classic goal-keeping instincts.

“Goalkeepers are preparing more systematically. They work with video analysts, data specialists and dedicated goalkeeping coaches who study hundreds of penalties before a competition,” says Kahn.

German says a big reason big names pay fines is the huge burden they shoulder. “The pressure in the World Cup is different from any other tournament. Players know that one missed penalty can define their entire career,” he says. “That mental pressure often leads to hesitation and poor judgment. And hesitation is what goalies are looking for.”

It would explain why Messi, who converted seven of nine in the shootout, was shabby in regular time, or why Mbappe had a low, weak shot.

The game ‘keepers play

Geyer cites research that shows goaltender distraction techniques can reduce conversion rates by 10 percent. Norwegian Orjen Nyland neutralized Brazil’s Bruno Guimaraes and, despite Neymar’s late penalty, the five-time winners faltered.

False deflection moves are all the rage, and Geyer notes that goalkeepers who manipulate have yielded 58 percent of the conversions, while traditional dumb ones have been hit 79 percent of the time.

Lionel Messi misses penalty against Egypt in 2026 World Cup (AP Photo)

“Penaltying is no longer just about technique. It has become a battle of preparation, psychology and decision-making. But every goalkeeper relies on gut feelings,” reflected Kahn.

Some individuals, like Martinez, rely on chirping. Like his famous taping of Bruno Fernandes in the Aston Villa-Manchester United game where he asked the Portuguese why Cristiano Ronaldo wasn’t taking shots. He has scored 12/24 for Argentina, stopping an astonishing 50 per cent with his volleys.

“I remember, years ago, a penalty was considered a typical goal. Today, goalkeepers arrive at major tournaments with a huge amount of data. Footwork, composure, reading body language and delaying dives are trained in incredible detail. Goalkeepers are much better athletes than they were 20 years ago,” notes Kahn.

He is reluctant to conclude that the advantage has gone entirely to the goalkeeper.

“A perfectly executed penalty is still almost impossible to save. The only chance to save is if the goalkeeper makes the wrong decision or takes a weak shot. But the margin for error is much smaller. If the penalty taker is not fully convinced, even the slightest bit hesitant, today’s elite German goalkeepers say,” the German goalkeeper is immediate. A mental duel. “That’s why we’re looking at more savings in this World Cup.”